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KIM ENG RESEARCH CENTER
October 11, 2002
Fitch revises Thailand's outlook to positive

Fitch Rating yesterday revised up its outlook for Thailand’s sovereign rating from stable to positive. However Fitch still affirmed Thailand’s long-term foreign and long-term local currency ratings at ‘BBB-‘ and ‘BBB+’ respectively. The short-term foreign currency rating is affirmed at ‘F3’.

Fitch said the upgrade is due to a sharp and ongoing improvement in Thailand's external balance sheet, coupled with clearer signs of a recovery in the corporate and financial sectors. The credit-ratings agency said it was confident that Thailand will be able to resume GDP growth rates of 4% to 5% in the medium term, helping ensure stability in its public finances. Fitch warned, however, that a further upgrade of Thailand's ratings would require a sustained recovery in investment, further progress in reducing NPLs and stronger evidence of improvement in the underlying fiscal position

Fitch classifies Thailand’s long-term foreign and local currency and its short-term foreign currency as investment grade. Thailand has higher credit ratings than Indonesia and the Philippines but falls below those of Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Malaysia. This broadly corresponds with assessments by Moody’s and S&P, which .raised its Thailand’s outlook to positive two months ago.

Fitch ratings for Asia

Countries

Foreign Currency

Local Currency

 
 

Long-Term

Short-Term

Long-Term

Outlook

Thailand

BBB-

F3

BBB+

Positive

Indonesia

B

B

B

Stable

Philippine

BB+

B

BBB-

Stable

Hong Kong

AA-

F1+

AA+

Stable

Korea

A

F1

AA-

Stable

Malaysia

BBB+

F2

A

Stable

Singapore

AA+

F1+

AAA

Stable

Remarks : For long-term, AAA, AA, A, BBB is investment grade while BB, B, CCC, CC, CC means below Investment grade. For short-term, F1, F2, F3 are classified as investment grade but B, C, D is below investment grade.

 

Analyst: Surachai P. (Ext. 1420)
Email: Surachai.p@kimeng.co.th


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