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| March 20, 2001 |
NESDB lowers 2001 GDP target
to 3.5-4%
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Yesterday, the government’s planning
and policy arm, the National Economic and Social Development Board
(NESDB), reported Thailand’s GDP for the fourth quarter and economic
outlook for 2001. Fourth quarter GDP increased 3.1% yoy, slightly
better than the third quarter’s 2.8% and market expectations.
We assume that election spending and the reduction in oil prices
by the end of the quarter helped boost economic activity even
though export growth was beginning to taper off.
NESDB also announced that it is lowering
its 2001 GDP forecast from 4-4.5% to to 3.5-4%, which shouldn’t
be a surprise to anyone in the market. Despite the reduction,
the NESDB’s forecast is still one of the highest. Other economists
have already reduced their forecasts to 2.5-3.5%. However, it
is still interesting to see the basis of their reduction. The
export growth forecast was cut from 9-11% to 7-9%. Private consumption
and investment forecasts were also reduced, while the public sector
consumption and investment increased to reflect the Thaksin government’s
stimulus measures.
Economic Outlook
2001
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Preliminary
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Estimate
(As of 18 Dec 2000)
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Estimate
(As of 19 March 2001)
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1999
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2000
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2001
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2001
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GDP (Current prices: billion
baht)
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4,615.4
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4,890.7
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5,362.0
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5,179.3
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GDP Growth rate (1988 price,%)
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4.2
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4.3
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4.0-4.5
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3.5-4.0
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Investment (1988 price, %)
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-4.0
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5.7
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5.6
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5.1-5.9
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Private (1988 price, %)
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-5.0
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14.2
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8.0-9.4
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6.8-8.2
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Public (1988 price, %)
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-2.8
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-5.0
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2.1
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2.6
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Consumption (1988 price, %)
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3.5
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4.8
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4.0
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4.1
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Private (1988 price, %)
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4.0
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4.5
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4.0-4.5
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4.0-4.2
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Public (1988 price, %)
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0.9
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6.5
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4.2
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4.8
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Export value (Billions of US$)
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56.8
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67.9
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74.3-75.7
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72.7-74.0
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Growth rate (%)
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7.4
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19.5
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9.0-11.0
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7.0-9.0
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Import value (Billions of US$)
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47.5
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62.4
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70.9-72.5
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68.0-70.0
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Growth rate (%)
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17.0
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31.4
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12.5-15.0
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9.0-12.2
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Balance of Trade (Billions of
US$)
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9.3
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5.5
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3.4
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4.6
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Current account balance (Billions
of US$)
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12.5
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9.2
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5.5
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6.6
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Current account balance / GDP
(%)
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10.2
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7.5
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4.0-4.2
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5.5
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Inflation (%)
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Consumer price index
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0.3
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1.6
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2.6
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2.2
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GDP Deflator
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-4.5
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1.6
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3.0
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2.4
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Source : National Economic and Social Development Board, 19 March
2001
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Analyst: Surachai (Ext. 1420)
Email: surachai.p@yuanta.co.th
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Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) PLC. All rights reserved.
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