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Yuanta Research Center |
Oct
16, 2000
|
| Projected Foreign Exchange Losses for Listed Companies |
- Economic environment in 3Q00 was surrounded with a series of negative factors. This affected both stock market and Baht currency. The SET dropped from 319.3 to 277.3, or 7.5% decline and Baht weakened to Bt42.12/$ from Bt39.17/$. For Baht against Yen, it weakened from Bt0.36911/Yen to Bt0.38935/Yen.
- There were eight key reasons responsible for a drop in stock market and weakening in Baht;
- disappointment on economic recovery
- still high NPLs for banking sector
- A weakening in currency for South East Asian region due to political unrest and economic collapse
- shaky political condition prior to the coming general election
- downgrade some of Thai blue-chip stocks from MSCI
- foreign capital outflow
- A rise in petrol price
- A drop in major stock markets like Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and regional markets
- The tables below show that who are the most vulnerable in term of experiencing huge F/X losses in 3Q00 (3Q00 results will be around mid next month). Table 1 indicates the currency of three major, US dollar, Japanese Yen and German Mark. Table 2 summarizes how much F/X losses for each individual company Surely, high leveraged companies – especially those in telecom, building and chemical sectors – are the most vulnerable Building: SCC, TASCO, TPIPL Chemical: ATC, TPI, VNT Telecom: JASMIN, SAMART, TA, TT&T Energy: COCO, EGCOMP, PTTEP (but COCO and EGCOMP get compensation from EGAT, and PTTEP gains natural hedge)
Table 1 : Exchange Rate Movement during 3Q00
|
Currency |
Exchange Rate as of (Bt) |
Change (Bt) |
%Chg |
|
|
30 Sep 43 |
31 Jul 43 |
|||
|
$ US |
42.12 |
39.17 |
-2.95 |
-7.53% |
Table 2 : Unhedged Foreign Debt estimate for 3Q2000
|
Foreign Debt Q2/00 (Bt Mn) |
US$ |
Yen |
DM |
FX Loss (Bt, Mn) |
FX Loss /share |
Note |
|
|
Building |
|||||||
|
SCC |
43,474 |
600.0 |
43,000.0 |
215 |
-2,632 |
-22.93 |
|
|
TASCO |
2,086 |
53.3 |
0.0 |
0 |
-157 |
-2.38 |
Foreign investment $5.239Mn |
|
TPIPL |
33,766 |
665.0 |
3,551.0 |
336 |
-2,020 |
-4.98 |
|
|
Chemical |
|||||||
|
ATC |
13,998 |
357.4 |
0.0 |
0 |
-1,054 |
-3.64 |
|
|
NPC |
2,840 |
72.5 |
0.0 |
0 |
-214 |
-1.69 |
Natural heage+ benefit from currency weakness |
|
TPC |
3,604 |
92.0 |
0.0 |
0 |
-271 |
-4.08 |
|
|
TPI |
84,867 |
2,100.0 |
1,800.0 |
102 |
-6,227 |
-4.19 |
Partially hedge |
|
VNT |
7,090 |
181.0 |
0.0 |
0 |
-534 |
-1.59 |
Partially hedge export 26% |
|
Communication |
|||||||
|
ADVANC |
1,102 |
28.1 |
0.0 |
0 |
-83 |
-1.31 |
|
|
JASMIN |
8,845 |
136.3 |
9,500.0 |
0 |
-594 |
-2.33 |
|
|
SAMART |
5,340 |
52.0 |
8,950.0 |
0 |
-335 |
-5.46 |
|
|
SAMTEL |
24 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0 |
-2 |
-1.03 |
|
|
SATTEL |
4,105 |
104.8 |
0.0 |
0 |
-309 |
-1.71 |
80% revenue in US$ |
|
TA |
32,959 |
841.0 |
45.8 |
0 |
-2,482 |
-2.12 |
|
|
TT&T |
17,764 |
439.0 |
1,539.0 |
0 |
-1,326 |
-2.18 |
|
|
UCOM |
7,221 |
99.6 |
8,992.9 |
0 |
-476 |
-2.09 |
exclude TAC |
|
Energy |
|||||||
|
BANPU |
1,321 |
31.0 |
0.0 |
5.5 |
-91 |
-1.42 |
|
|
BCP |
809 |
20.7 |
0.0 |
0 |
-61 |
-1.12 |
|
|
COCO |
17,452 |
445.6 |
0.0 |
0 |
-1,314 |
-2.09 |
Subsidize from EGAT |
|
EGCOMP |
17,192 |
438.9 |
0.0 |
0 |
-1,295 |
-3.47 |
Subsidize from EGAT |
|
PTTEP |
15,405 |
393.3 |
0.0 |
0 |
-1,160 |
-2.78 |
Natural Hedge |
|
Property |
|||||||
|
ITD |
6,437 |
106.0 |
6,191.0 |
0 |
-438 |
-2.75 |
|
|
LH |
1,549 |
24.0 |
1,650.0 |
0 |
-104 |
-1.17 |
Debt quarantee Yen 2,686 Mn |
|
Transportation |
|||||||
|
PSL |
5,297 |
135.2 |
0.0 |
0 |
-399 |
-8.67 |
|
|
RCL |
1,340 |
34.2 |
0.0 |
0 |
-101 |
-2.58 |
Foreign revenue 82% |
|
Other |
|||||||
|
PDI |
889 |
22.7 |
0.0 |
0 |
-67 |
-1.30 |
Foreign revenue 30% |
|
PPPC |
2,525 |
64.5 |
0.0 |
0 |
-190 |
-2.73 |
Foreign revenue 43% |
|
TUNTEX |
3,998 |
101.4 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
-299 |
-2.08 |
|
(Disclaimer: Table 2 displayed projected foreign exchange loss per share by realizing loan amount at the 2nd quarter of 2000 and by using the exchange rate from APEX. Thus, mistakes could occur from changing of debt during interim period and the exchange rate used to calculated which varied among banks)
Analyst : Surachai P. (surachai.p@yuanta.co.th)