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Bangkok
Aviation Fuel Services
BAFS <Bt8.50>
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Recommendation
New : ACCUMULATE
Previous : ACCUMULATE
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4Q02
pickup in flights/volume uplift expected to boost
earnings
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We expect Bangkok Aviation
Fuel Services (BAFS) to report 4Q02 normalised earnings of
Bt83mn, up 42% from the previous year. However, full-year
2002 normalised profit should slightly decrease by 3% from
Bt339mn to Bt330mn due to the strengthening baht and
reduction in flights by Qantas Airways and British Airways
to Don Muang Airport last year.
|
BAFS income statement |
|
Income Statement (Mn Bt) |
4Q02F |
3Q02 |
QOQ |
4Q01 |
YOY |
FY01 |
FY02F |
% |
|
Sales |
219 |
210 |
4% |
223 |
(2%) |
882 |
882 |
0% |
|
COGs |
55 |
63 |
(13%) |
74 |
(26%) |
225 |
252 |
12% |
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Gross profits |
164 |
147 |
11% |
149 |
10% |
658 |
631 |
(4%) |
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Gross margin (%) |
75% |
70% |
N.A. |
67% |
N.A. |
75% |
71% |
N.A. |
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SG&A |
39 |
32 |
22% |
49 |
(19%) |
141 |
134 |
(5%) |
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EBITDA |
143 |
133 |
8% |
113 |
27% |
587 |
572 |
(3%) |
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EBITDA margin (%) |
65% |
63% |
N.A. |
51% |
N.A. |
67% |
65% |
N.A. |
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Interest expense |
0.0 |
0.4 |
(100%) |
0.4 |
N.A. |
1.9 |
0.7 |
(62%) |
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Net profit before extra item |
83 |
78 |
6% |
58 |
42% |
339 |
330 |
(3%) |
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Extra ordinary gain (loss) |
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- Forex gain (loss) |
0 |
0 |
N.A. |
0 |
N.A. |
0 |
0 |
N.A. |
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- Other (loss) |
0 |
0 |
N.A. |
(415 ) |
N.A. |
(415 ) |
0 |
N.A. |
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Net profit |
83 |
78 |
6% |
(357 ) |
N.A. |
(76 ) |
330 |
(533%) |
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EPS (Bt) before extra item |
0.24 |
0.23 |
6% |
0.23 |
5% |
1.36 |
1.04 |
(23%) |
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EPS (Bt) |
0.24 |
0.23 |
6% |
(1.43) |
N.A. |
(0.31) |
1.04 |
(441%) |
Last year, the total number
of flights serviced by BAFS increased by 5.5% from 95,771 in
2001 to 101,015. However, we have recently seen a pick up in
the number of flights with 10.3% growth in 4Q02 and 10.8% in
January 2003.
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Comparion of monthly flights |
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Month |
2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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No. of Flights |
Growth |
No. of Flights |
Growth |
No. of Flights |
Growth |
No. of Flights |
Growth |
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January |
7,616 |
N.A. |
8,473 |
11.3% |
8,398 |
-0.9% |
9,305 |
10.8% |
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February |
7,412 |
N.A. |
7,461 |
0.7% |
7,890 |
5.7% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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March |
7,716 |
N.A. |
8,249 |
6.9% |
8,509 |
3.2% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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April |
7,589 |
N.A. |
8,201 |
8.1% |
8,407 |
2.5% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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May |
7,552 |
N.A. |
7,918 |
4.8% |
8,453 |
6.8% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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June |
7,097 |
N.A. |
7,587 |
6.9% |
7,910 |
4.3% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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July |
7,513 |
N.A. |
8,015 |
6.7% |
8,313 |
3.7% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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August |
7,749 |
N.A. |
8,132 |
4.9% |
8,509 |
4.6% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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September |
7,459 |
N.A. |
7,657 |
2.7% |
8,079 |
5.5% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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October |
7,805 |
N.A. |
7,983 |
2.3% |
8,583 |
7.5% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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November |
7,825 |
N.A. |
7,728 |
-1.2% |
8,691 |
12.5% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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December |
8,211 |
N.A. |
8,367 |
1.9% |
9,273 |
10.8% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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Total |
91,544 |
N.A. |
95,771 |
4.6% |
101,015 |
5.5% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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Source : BAFS |
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BAFS’ volume uplift in 2002
was also affected by the reduction in flights by Qantas
Airways and British Airways to Don Muang Airport since April
and rising in global oil prices which forced some carriers
to reduce flights to control jet fuel oil consumption. For
the full-year, volume uplift grew by only 1.6% yoy, less
than previous estimate of 3% yoy. We believe that the
company‘s volume uplift will improve this year based on
the assumption that if there is a Second Gulf War that it
will be relatively short. In January 2003, volume uplift
increased 5.9% to 322 million litres.
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Comparion of monthly uplifts (million litres) |
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Month |
2000 |
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2001 |
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2002 |
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2003 |
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Volume uplifts |
Growth |
Volume uplifts |
Growth |
Volume uplifts |
Growth |
Volume uplifts |
Growth |
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January |
267.4 |
N.A. |
300.4 |
12.3% |
304.3 |
1.3% |
322.2 |
5.9% |
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February |
257.3 |
N.A. |
266.8 |
3.7% |
279.5 |
4.8% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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March |
275.4 |
N.A. |
294.7 |
7.0% |
304.3 |
3.3% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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April |
266.9 |
N.A. |
291.9 |
9.4% |
293.5 |
0.5% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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May |
265.7 |
N.A. |
290.8 |
9.5% |
293.6 |
0.9% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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June |
253.2 |
N.A. |
280.5 |
10.8% |
280.1 |
-0.1% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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July |
272.7 |
N.A. |
296.9 |
8.8% |
289.7 |
-2.4% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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August |
277.2 |
N.A. |
295.4 |
6.6% |
296.3 |
0.3% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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September |
272.3 |
N.A. |
289.8 |
6.4% |
284.0 |
-2.0% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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October |
281.7 |
N.A. |
296.8 |
5.4% |
298.9 |
0.7% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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November |
280.2 |
N.A. |
288.1 |
2.8% |
306.2 |
6.3% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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December |
292.2 |
N.A. |
302.4 |
3.5% |
321.2 |
6.2% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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Total |
3,262 |
N.A. |
3,494 |
7.1% |
3,551 |
1.6% |
N.A. |
N.A. |
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Source : BAFS |
BAFS is a net cash company
with a strong cash flow. We believe the company can pay a
2H02 dividend of Bt0.21 after paying an interim dividend of
Bt0.25 from 1H02 earnings. Based on the current share price,
full-year dividends of Bt0.46 represent a dividend yield of
4.8%. We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation on
this stock with a fair value estimate of Bt10.50.
|
Financial ratios |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002F |
2003F |
2004F |
2005F |
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Sales (Bt mn) |
692 |
775 |
882 |
882 |
909 |
938 |
969 |
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EBITDA (Bt mn) |
411 |
423 |
587 |
572 |
609 |
617 |
635 |
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EBITDA margin (%) |
59.4 |
54.6 |
66.5 |
64.8 |
67.0 |
65.8 |
65.5 |
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Net profit (Bt mn) |
216 |
212 |
(76) |
330 |
372 |
375 |
404 |
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EPS (Bt) |
0.9 |
0.8 |
(0.3) |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
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PER (x) |
9.5 |
9.7 |
N.A. |
7.9 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
6.9 |
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EV/EBITDA (x) |
6.1 |
4.9 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
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Gearing (x) |
0.4 |
Cash |
Cash |
Cash |
Cash |
Cash |
Cash |
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ROA (%) |
54% |
51% |
-17% |
74% |
104% |
134% |
191% |
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ROE (%) |
24% |
21% |
-8% |
35% |
32% |
28% |
27% |
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Dividend per share (Bt) |
0.23 |
0.47 |
0.45 |
0.41 |
0.52 |
0.55 |
0.55 |
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Analyst:
Kitichan Sirisukarcha (Ext. 1570)
Email: kitichan.s@kimeng.co.th
If you have
any questions or suggestions please feel free to email our Research
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Copyright © March 2000,
Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) PLC. All rights reserved.
Disclaimer
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